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IFK Östersund vs Lucksta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

IFK Östersund

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lucksta

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.0%0-22.7%0-31.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.8%1-16.9%1-26.2%1-33.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.1%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.4%3-16.1%3-25.4%3-33.2%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-16.0%4+-25.4%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 57.5% 1.74 -11.6%

Draw 21.7% 26.3% 3.80 -10.5%

Away win 27.5% 29.9% 3.35 -4.7%

Over 2.5 67.4% 78.1% 1.28 -13.7%

Over 3.5 47.2% 57.8% 1.73 -18.3%

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.3%

H 51% / xG 2.3-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.9%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Östersund2.3

Lucksta1.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK ÖSTERSUND · PPG 1.57

LUCKSTA · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IFK Östersund (H) 50.8%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -11.6%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.5%

Lucksta (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Östersund face Lucksta in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Östersund a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Lucksta 28%, so IFK Östersund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for IFK Östersund and 1.8 for Lucksta (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Östersund are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.14 for Lucksta.

IFK Östersund vs Lucksta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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