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Enskede vs Korsnäs Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:00

Enskede

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Korsnäs

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-12.5%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.3%1-16.7%1-22.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.1%2-18.9%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-17.9%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.4%4+-110.0%4+-24.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.3% 66.7% 1.50 +2.5%

Draw 16.6% 24.4% 4.10 -19.2%

Away win 15.1% 18.5% 5.40 -11.1%

Over 2.5 66.0% 70.4% 1.42 -6.3%

Over 3.5 43.0% 50.0% 2.00 -14.0%

BTTS 54.5% 69.0% 1.45 -21.0%

Home O1.5 63.4% 72.5% 1.38 -12.5%

Away O1.5 21.1% 36.4% 2.75 -25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.5%

H 68% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 3–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Enskede2.7

Korsnäs0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ENSKEDE · PPG 2.50

KORSNÄS · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.85 for Home, form 2.50 vs 0.75 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Enskede (H) 68.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +2.5%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -19.2%

Korsnäs (A) 15.1%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Enskede face Korsnäs in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Enskede a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Korsnäs 15%, so Enskede are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Enskede and 0.8 for Korsnäs (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Enskede are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Korsnäs.

Enskede vs Korsnäs Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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