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Skiljebo vs Helges Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:00

Skiljebo

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Helges

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.83 for Home, form 2.25 vs 0.71 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.0%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.5%1-13.6%1-21.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.5%2-16.3%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.1%3-17.4%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-023.8%4+-115.8%4+-25.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.5% 86.2% 1.16 -11.3%

Draw 15.8% 16.4% 6.10 -2.2%

Away win 7.7% 11.1% 9.00 -18.4%

Over 2.5 67.4% 80.0% 1.25 -15.8%

Over 3.5 47.2% 60.6% 1.65 -22.1%

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 76% / xG 3.5-0.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.1%

#2 4–0 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 5–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skiljebo3.5

Helges0.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SKILJEBO · PPG 2.25

HELGES · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.83 for Home, form 2.25 vs 0.71 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Skiljebo (H) 76.5%

ODDS 1.16 · IMPLIED 86.2% EV -11.3%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 6.10 · IMPLIED 16.4% EV -2.2%

Helges (A) 7.7%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skiljebo face Helges in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skiljebo a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Helges 8%, so Skiljebo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Skiljebo and 0.7 for Helges (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skiljebo are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.71 for Helges.

Skiljebo vs Helges Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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