Today / Brazil - Serie C / Santa Cruz vs Maranhão

Santa Cruz vs Maranhão Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 22:30

Santa Cruz

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maranhão

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.1%0-110.7%0-22.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.7%1-111.0%1-22.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.6%2-15.6%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.0%3-11.9%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% — — —

Draw 33.2% — — —

Away win 22.5% — — —

Over 2.5 33.9% — — —

Over 3.5 14.4% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.1%

#2 1–0 22.7%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Cruz1.0

Maranhão0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.43

MARANHÃO · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santa Cruz (H) 44.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Maranhão (A) 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Cruz face Maranhão in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Cruz a 44% chance, the draw 33% and Maranhão 23%, so Santa Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Santa Cruz and 0.5 for Maranhão (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Cruz are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.88 for Maranhão.

Santa Cruz vs Maranhão Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions