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Thróttur Vogar vs Dalvík / Reynir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:00

Thróttur Vogar

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dalvík / Reynir

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.2%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.7%1-18.9%1-26.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.0%3-16.7%3-24.5%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.8%4+-23.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 33.9% 2.95 +58.1%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 24.0% 50.5% 1.98 -31.5%

Over 2.5 66.5% 71.4% 1.40 -6.9%

Over 3.5 43.0% 50.5% 1.98 -14.9%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 59.8% 50.8% 1.97 +17.8%

Away O1.5 42.6% 63.3% 1.58 -32.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.3%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thróttur Vogar2.1

Dalvík / Reynir1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.5% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

THRÓTTUR VOGAR · PPG 2.00

DALVÍK / REYNIR · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Thróttur Vogar (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +58.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Dalvík / Reynir (A) 24.0%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thróttur Vogar face Dalvík / Reynir in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thróttur Vogar a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Dalvík / Reynir 24%, so Thróttur Vogar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Thróttur Vogar and 1.3 for Dalvík / Reynir (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thróttur Vogar are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Dalvík / Reynir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +37.3%.

Thróttur Vogar vs Dalvík / Reynir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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