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Selfoss vs Fjolnir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Selfoss

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fjolnir

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.8%0-21.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-02.9%1-15.1%1-24.3%1-32.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.2%2-26.2%2-33.5%2-4+2.2%3 3-04.0%3-16.9%3-25.9%3-33.4%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-19.9%4+-28.5%4+-34.9%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 49.5% 2.02 +12.5%

Draw 20.1% 26.0% 3.85 -13.6%

Away win 24.2% 37.0% 2.70 -20.8%

Over 2.5 73.0% 84.0% 1.19 -13.1%

Over 3.5 54.2% 66.7% 1.50 -18.7%

BTTS 69.4% 83.3% 1.20 -16.7%

Home O1.5 78.8% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% 63.7% 1.57 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.4%

H 56% / xG 2.9-1.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.2%

#2 3–1 6.9%

#3 2–2 6.2%

#4 3–2 5.9%

#5 1–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Selfoss2.9

Fjolnir1.7

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 54.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SELFOSS · PPG 2.00

FJOLNIR · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Selfoss (H) 55.7%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +12.5%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -13.6%

Fjolnir (A) 24.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Selfoss face Fjolnir in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Selfoss a 56% chance, the draw 20% and Fjolnir 24%, so Selfoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Selfoss and 1.7 for Fjolnir (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Selfoss are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Fjolnir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.6%.

Selfoss vs Fjolnir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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