Today / Iceland - 2. Deild / KFG vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

KFG vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

KFG

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.1%0-23.6%0-32.8%0-4+2.7%1 1-02.7%1-16.2%1-27.2%1-35.5%1-4+5.5%2 2-02.7%2-16.2%2-27.2%2-35.5%2-4+5.5%3 3-01.8%3-14.1%3-24.8%3-33.7%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-13.3%4+-23.8%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 25.0% 4.00 +38.4%

Draw 21.4% 21.1% 4.75 +1.0%

Away win 43.9% 65.4% 1.53 -32.8%

Over 2.5 71.6% 82.0% 1.22 -12.7%

Over 3.5 51.1% 69.9% 1.43 -26.9%

BTTS 69.4% 78.7% 1.27 -11.9%

Home O1.5 54.6% 58.1% 1.72 -6.1%

Away O1.5 64.9% 77.5% 1.29 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob69.4%

A 44% / xG 2.0-2.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.2%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.2%

#5 1–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KFG2.0

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir2.3

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KFG · PPG 1.12

FJARDABYGGD / LEIKNIR · PPG 0.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

KFG (H) 34.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +38.4%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.0%

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (A) 43.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

KFG face Fjardabyggd / Leiknir in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KFG a 35% chance, the draw 21% and Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 44%, so Fjardabyggd / Leiknir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for KFG and 2.3 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KFG are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.57 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.0%.

KFG vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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