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Komárom vs Pápai Perutz Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Northwest

Northwest · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:30

Komárom

PPG 1.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pápai Perutz

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.6%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.6%1-16.8%1-24.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.3%2-19.0%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-17.9%3-24.8%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-19.8%4+-26.0%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 55% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 6.8%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Komárom2.6

Pápai Perutz1.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KOMÁROM · PPG 1.54

PÁPAI PERUTZ · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Komárom (H) 55.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pápai Perutz (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Komárom face Pápai Perutz in Hungary - NB III - Northwest on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Komárom a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Pápai Perutz 22%, so Komárom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Komárom and 1.2 for Pápai Perutz (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Komárom are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.83 for Pápai Perutz.

Komárom vs Pápai Perutz Prediction— Hungary - NB III - Northwest

Match Preview & Prediction

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