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Lipno Stęszew vs Kluczevia Stargard Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:00

Lipno Stęszew

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kluczevia Stargard

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.8%0-26.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.2%1-111.2%1-28.7%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-18.0%2-26.3%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.8%3-23.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 36.8% — — —

Over 2.5 55.3% — — —

Over 3.5 34.0% — — —

BTTS 59.9% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.9%

A 37% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lipno Stęszew1.4

Kluczevia Stargard1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LIPNO STĘSZEW · PPG 1.56

KLUCZEVIA STARGARD · PPG 1.37

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lipno Stęszew (H) 37.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kluczevia Stargard (A) 36.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lipno Stęszew face Kluczevia Stargard in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lipno Stęszew a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Kluczevia Stargard 37%, so Lipno Stęszew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lipno Stęszew and 1.6 for Kluczevia Stargard (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lipno Stęszew are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.37 for Kluczevia Stargard.

Lipno Stęszew vs Kluczevia Stargard Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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