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Elana Toruń vs Lipno Stęszew Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

Elana Toruń

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lipno Stęszew

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.9%0-24.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.9%1-111.1%1-27.8%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-18.9%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.4%3-14.8%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 29.8% — — —

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 37.3% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.1%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elana Toruń1.6

Lipno Stęszew1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ELANA TORUŃ · PPG 1.40

LIPNO STĘSZEW · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Elana Toruń (H) 45.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lipno Stęszew (A) 29.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Elana Toruń face Lipno Stęszew in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elana Toruń a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Lipno Stęszew 30%, so Elana Toruń are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Elana Toruń and 1.4 for Lipno Stęszew (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elana Toruń are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.44 for Lipno Stęszew.

Elana Toruń vs Lipno Stęszew Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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