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Polonia Środa vs Victoria Września Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 17:00

Polonia Środa

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Victoria Września

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.4%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.9%1-16.5%1-23.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.1%2-18.9%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-18.1%3-24.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-110.7%4+-25.9%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.6% — — —

Draw 16.6% — — —

Away win 16.8% — — —

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 45.4% — — —

BTTS 61.8% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 100%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.8%

H 67% / xG 2.7-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–1 6.5%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polonia Środa2.7

Victoria Września1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.4%

Form & verdict PPG

POLONIA ŚRODA · PPG 1.82

VICTORIA WRZEŚNIA · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.63 for Home, form 1.82 vs 1.36 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Polonia Środa (H) 66.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Victoria Września (A) 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Polonia Środa face Victoria Września in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polonia Środa a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Victoria Września 17%, so Polonia Środa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Polonia Środa and 1.1 for Victoria Września (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polonia Środa are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.36 for Victoria Września.

Polonia Środa vs Victoria Września Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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