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Victoria Września vs Lech Poznań II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:00

Victoria Września

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lech Poznań II

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.3%0-25.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.3%1-111.1%1-28.4%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.4%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.8%3-14.2%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 34.7% — — —

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 37.3% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

A 35% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Victoria Września1.5

Lech Poznań II1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VICTORIA WRZEŚNIA · PPG 1.29

LECH POZNAŃ II · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Victoria Września (H) 40.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lech Poznań II (A) 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Victoria Września face Lech Poznań II in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Victoria Września a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Lech Poznań II 35%, so Victoria Września are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Victoria Września and 1.5 for Lech Poznań II (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Victoria Września are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.36 for Lech Poznań II.

Victoria Września vs Lech Poznań II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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