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Stargard Szczeciński vs Lech Poznań II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Stargard Szczeciński

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lech Poznań II

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.2%0-25.6%0-33.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.5%1-19.8%1-28.7%1-35.2%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.3%2-17.7%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.2%3-14.0%3-23.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.2%4+-22.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 41.1% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 38.0% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 46.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.6%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stargard Szczeciński1.6

Lech Poznań II1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STARGARD SZCZECIŃSKI · PPG 1.30

LECH POZNAŃ II · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stargard Szczeciński (H) 34.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lech Poznań II (A) 41.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Stargard Szczeciński face Lech Poznań II in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stargard Szczeciński a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Lech Poznań II 41%, so Lech Poznań II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Stargard Szczeciński and 1.8 for Lech Poznań II (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stargard Szczeciński are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.64 for Lech Poznań II.

Stargard Szczeciński vs Lech Poznań II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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