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Kluczevia Stargard vs Stargard Szczeciński Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Kluczevia Stargard

PPG 1.36 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stargard Szczeciński

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.6%0-24.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.7%1-110.0%1-27.5%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.5%3-15.3%3-24.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 47.6% 2.10 -1.9%

Draw 23.6% 27.8% 3.60 -9.0%

Away win 29.7% 35.7% 2.80 -10.1%

Over 2.5 63.6% 61.7% 1.62 +3.0%

Over 3.5 40.5% 40.2% 2.49 +0.9%

BTTS 63.2% 66.2% 1.51 -4.6%

Home O1.5 49.2% 53.5% 1.87 -8.0%

Away O1.5 47.4% 43.7% 2.29 +8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1✓ 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kluczevia Stargard1.8

Stargard Szczeciński1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KLUCZEVIA STARGARD · PPG 1.36

STARGARD SZCZECIŃSKI · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kluczevia Stargard (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -1.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.0%

Stargard Szczeciński (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kluczevia Stargard face Stargard Szczeciński in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kluczevia Stargard a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Stargard Szczeciński 30%, so Kluczevia Stargard are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Kluczevia Stargard and 1.5 for Stargard Szczeciński (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kluczevia Stargard are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.40 for Stargard Szczeciński. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Kluczevia Stargard vs Stargard Szczeciński Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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