Today / Poland - III Liga - Group 2 / Wda Świecie vs Lipno Stęszew

Wda Świecie vs Lipno Stęszew Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Wda Świecie

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lipno Stęszew

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.5%0-25.5%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.4%1-112.1%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.7%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.2%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 50.0% 2.00 -17.6%

Draw 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

Away win 30.1% 34.5% 2.90 -12.7%

Over 2.5 50.3% 60.6% 1.65 -17.0%

Over 3.5 29.6% 38.2% 2.62 -13.5%

BTTS 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Home O1.5 45.4% 53.2% 1.88 -14.6%

Away O1.5 37.6% 42.0% 2.38 -10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.1%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1✓ 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wda Świecie1.4

Lipno Stęszew1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WDA ŚWIECIE · PPG 1.60

LIPNO STĘSZEW · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wda Świecie (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -17.6%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +3.7%

Lipno Stęszew (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wda Świecie face Lipno Stęszew in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wda Świecie a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Lipno Stęszew 30%, so Wda Świecie are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Wda Świecie and 1.3 for Lipno Stęszew (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wda Świecie are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.33 for Lipno Stęszew. This match finished 2-1.

Wda Świecie vs Lipno Stęszew Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - III Liga - Group 2 Predictions