Today / Paraguay - Division Intermedia / Independiente F.b.c. vs Resistencia

Independiente F.b.c. vs Resistencia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 19:30

Independiente F.b.c.

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Resistencia

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.2%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.3%1-111.7%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 26.7% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 47.5% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 75%

ROI -37.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente F.b.c.1.6

Resistencia1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE F.B.C. · PPG 1.38

RESISTENCIA · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Independiente F.b.c. (H) 48.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Resistencia (A) 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente F.b.c. face Resistencia in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente F.b.c. a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Resistencia 27%, so Independiente F.b.c. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.1 for Resistencia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente F.b.c. are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.12 for Resistencia.

Independiente F.b.c. vs Resistencia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

More Paraguay - Division Intermedia Predictions