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Jonsered vs Onsala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

Jonsered

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Onsala

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.4%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.0%1-110.0%1-27.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.0%3-15.7%3-24.0%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.0%4+-22.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 42.6% 2.35 +11.9%

Draw 23.2% 28.6% 3.50 -11.3%

Away win 29.1% 42.9% 2.33 -19.3%

Over 2.5 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Over 3.5 38.8% 52.4% 1.91 -25.9%

BTTS 61.6% 76.9% 1.30 -19.9%

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonsered1.8

Onsala1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JONSERED · PPG 1.88

ONSALA · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jonsered (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +11.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.3%

Onsala (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonsered face Onsala in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonsered a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Onsala 29%, so Jonsered are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Jonsered and 1.4 for Onsala (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonsered are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.38 for Onsala. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.8%.

Jonsered vs Onsala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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