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Moreland City vs Box Hill Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 04:00

Moreland City

PPG 0.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Box Hill

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.9%0-28.0%0-36.2%0-4+6.2%1 1-03.6%1-18.3%1-29.6%1-37.4%1-4+7.4%2 2-02.1%2-14.9%2-25.7%2-34.4%2-4+4.4%3 3-00.9%3-12.0%3-22.3%3-31.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.2% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 55.5% — — —

Over 2.5 66.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 61.7% — — —

Home O1.5 31.7% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob61.7%

A 56% / xG 1.2-2.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 1–3 7.4%

#5 0–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreland City1.2

Box Hill2.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MORELAND CITY · PPG 0.40

BOX HILL · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.12 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Moreland City (H) 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Box Hill (A) 55.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreland City face Box Hill in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreland City a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Box Hill 56%, so Box Hill are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Moreland City and 2.3 for Box Hill (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreland City are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.73 for Box Hill.

Moreland City vs Box Hill Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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