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Eastern Lions vs Essendon Royals SC Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Matchday 24 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 09:45

Eastern Lions

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Essendon Royals SC

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.2%0-25.8%0-33.7%0-4+2.6%1 1-05.1%1-19.5%1-28.9%1-35.6%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.9%2-17.3%2-26.8%2-34.3%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.0%3-13.7%3-23.5%3-32.2%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.0%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 42.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 40.1% — — —

BTTS 62.3% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.3%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern Lions1.5

Essendon Royals SC1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN LIONS · PPG 1.45

ESSENDON ROYALS SC · PPG 1.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Eastern Lions (H) 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Essendon Royals SC (A) 42.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern Lions face Essendon Royals SC in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern Lions a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Essendon Royals SC 42%, so Essendon Royals SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Eastern Lions and 1.9 for Essendon Royals SC (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern Lions are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.55 for Essendon Royals SC.

Eastern Lions vs Essendon Royals SC Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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