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Springvale vs Malvern Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Matchday 24 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 10:30

Springvale

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Malvern

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.16 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-18.0%0-29.0%0-36.7%0-4+6.4%1 1-03.9%1-18.7%1-29.8%1-37.3%1-4+6.9%2 2-02.1%2-14.7%2-25.3%2-34.0%2-4+3.8%3 3-00.8%3-11.7%3-21.9%3-31.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 55.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.3% — — —

Over 3.5 40.7% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.6%

A 55% / xG 1.1-2.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.0%

#4 1–3 7.3%

#5 0–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Springvale1.1

Malvern2.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPRINGVALE · PPG 1.36

MALVERN · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.16 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Springvale (H) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Malvern (A) 55.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Springvale face Malvern in Australia - Victoria Premier League 2 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Springvale a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Malvern 55%, so Malvern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Springvale and 2.2 for Malvern (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Springvale are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 2.33 for Malvern.

Springvale vs Malvern Prediction— Australia - Victoria Premier League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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