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Correcaminos Uat vs Tapatío Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 01:00

Correcaminos Uat

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tapatío

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.6%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.0%1-19.5%1-25.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.7%3-16.7%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 57.5% 1.74 -7.1%

Draw 23.4% 26.3% 3.80 -6.7%

Away win 23.2% 23.1% 4.33 +0.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% 56.5% 1.77 +5.3%

Over 3.5 36.5% 33.9% 2.95 +7.7%

BTTS 54.5% 58.8% 1.70 -7.3%

Home O1.5 59.2% 57.1% 1.75 +3.6%

Away O1.5 35.3% 31.3% 3.20 +13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 13.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Correcaminos Uat2.1

Tapatío1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CORRECAMINOS UAT · PPG 1.40

TAPATÍO · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Correcaminos Uat (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -7.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.7%

Tapatío (A) 23.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Correcaminos Uat face Tapatío in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Correcaminos Uat a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Tapatío 23%, so Correcaminos Uat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Correcaminos Uat and 1.2 for Tapatío (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Correcaminos Uat are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Tapatío. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.0%.

Correcaminos Uat vs Tapatío Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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