Today / Poland - III Liga - Group 1 / Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Łomża

Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Łomża Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 14:00

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

PPG 1.48 · HOME

UPCOMING

Łomża

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.7%0-25.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.0%1-110.7%1-28.2%1-34.2%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.6%2-18.5%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.0%3-14.6%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.6%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 32.9% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 47.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.3%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lechia T. Mazowiecki1.6

Łomża1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LECHIA T. MAZOWIECKI · PPG 1.48

ŁOMŻA · PPG 1.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (H) 43.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Łomża (A) 32.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lechia T. Mazowiecki face Łomża in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lechia T. Mazowiecki a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Łomża 33%, so Lechia T. Mazowiecki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki and 1.5 for Łomża (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lechia T. Mazowiecki are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.46 for Łomża.

Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Łomża Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - III Liga - Group 1 Predictions