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Sporting Braga vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 19:30

Sporting Braga

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Famalicao

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDW

// Model verdict

Home 54% chance

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-17.2%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-111.5%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.3%3-14.9%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 52.9% 1.89 +7.5%

Draw 24.9% 29.4% 3.40 -15.3%

Away win 18.2% 25.0% 4.00 -27.2%

Over 2.5 42.7% 52.6% 1.90 -18.9%

Over 3.5 21.9% 30.8% 3.25 -28.8%

BTTS 43.4% 57.8% 1.73 -24.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob43.4%

H 57% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 2–0 11.8%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Braga1.6

Famalicao0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING BRAGA · PPG 1.93

FAMALICAO · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Braga (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV +7.5%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.3%

Famalicao (A) 18.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -27.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Braga face Famalicao in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Braga a 57% chance, the draw 25% and Famalicao 18%, so Sporting Braga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sporting Braga and 0.8 for Famalicao (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Braga are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.43 for Famalicao. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Sporting Braga vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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