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FC Porto vs Tondela Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 19:30

FC Porto

PPG 2.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tondela

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Home 88% chance

Model probability 92.7% vs bookmaker-implied 86.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-10.8%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.1%1-12.4%1-20.3%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.2%2-13.9%2-20.5%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-017.4%3-14.2%3-20.5%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-031.7%4+-17.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 92.7% 86.2% 1.16 +7.5%

Draw 6.1% 16.7% 6.00 -63.4%

Away win 1.2% 4.3% 23.00 -72.4%

Over 2.5 67.3% 60.6% 1.65 +11.0%

Over 3.5 45.7% 38.5% 2.60 +18.8%

BTTS 20.7% 37.7% 2.65 -45.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.2 BTTS prob20.7%

H 93% / xG 3.2-0.2 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 21%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 17.4%

#2 2–0✓ 16.2%

#3 4–0 14.1%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 5–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Porto3.2

Tondela0.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FC PORTO · PPG 2.57

TONDELA · PPG 0.85

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

88%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.57), Away POOR (0.85) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Porto (H) 92.7%

ODDS 1.16 · IMPLIED 86.2% EV +7.5%

Draw 6.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -63.4%

Tondela (A) 1.2%

ODDS 23.00 · IMPLIED 4.3% EV -72.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Porto face Tondela in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Porto a 93% chance, the draw 6% and Tondela 1%, so FC Porto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for FC Porto and 0.2 for Tondela (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 21% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Porto are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.85 for Tondela. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 2-0.

FC Porto vs Tondela Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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