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Yarmouk vs Burgan Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Sunday, August 9, 2026, 17:45

Yarmouk

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Burgan

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.7%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.1%1-112.0%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-14.9%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% — — —

Draw 25.7% — — —

Away win 24.1% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.7% — — —

Away O1.5 25.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yarmouk1.6

Burgan0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

YARMOUK · PPG 1.57

BURGAN · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Yarmouk (H) 50.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Burgan (A) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Yarmouk face Burgan in Kuwait - Division 1 on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yarmouk a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Burgan 24%, so Yarmouk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Yarmouk and 0.9 for Burgan (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yarmouk are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.11 for Burgan.

Yarmouk vs Burgan Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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