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Paysandu vs Confiança Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 16 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 23:00

Paysandu

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Confiança

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-16.6%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.0%1-110.8%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-18.7%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.5%3-14.7%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-12.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 62.5% 1.60 -14.7%

Draw 24.4% 28.2% 3.55 -8.0%

Away win 22.2% 19.0% 5.25 +9.9%

Over 2.5 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 47.7% 56.5% 1.77 -15.6%

Home O1.5 47.2% 59.9% 1.67 -21.2%

Away O1.5 17.2% 27.4% 3.65 -22.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.0%

#2 2–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 10.5%

#5 2–1✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paysandu1.6

Confiança0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PAYSANDU · PPG 1.75

CONFIANÇA · PPG 0.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Paysandu (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -14.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.0%

Confiança (A) 22.2%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paysandu face Confiança in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paysandu a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Confiança 22%, so Paysandu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Paysandu and 0.6 for Confiança (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paysandu are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.14 for Confiança. This match finished 2-1.

Paysandu vs Confiança Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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