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Anápolis vs Guarani Campinas Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 16 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 23:00

Anápolis

PPG 1.14 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Guarani Campinas

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-111.9%0-28.7%0-34.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.4%2-16.5%2-24.8%2-32.3%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.5%3-12.3%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 34.5% 2.90 -9.5%

Draw 27.0% 29.9% 3.35 -5.7%

Away win 41.8% 45.5% 2.20 -8.0%

Over 2.5 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Over 3.5 28.8% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

BTTS 53.1% 60.6% 1.65 -12.4%

Home O1.5 30.2% 40.8% 2.45 -26.0%

Away O1.5 44.0% 48.8% 2.05 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.1%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 8.1%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Anápolis1.0

Guarani Campinas1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ANÁPOLIS · PPG 1.14

GUARANI CAMPINAS · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Anápolis (H) 31.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.7%

Guarani Campinas (A) 41.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Anápolis face Guarani Campinas in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Anápolis a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Guarani Campinas 42%, so Guarani Campinas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Anápolis and 1.5 for Guarani Campinas (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Anápolis are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.29 for Guarani Campinas. This match finished 2-1.

Anápolis vs Guarani Campinas Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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