Today / Malawi - Super League / Kamuzu Barracks vs MAFCO

Kamuzu Barracks vs MAFCO Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 12:30

Kamuzu Barracks

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

MAFCO

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-112.2%0-25.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.9%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.2%2-17.4%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% — — —

Draw 28.8% — — —

Away win 30.2% — — —

Over 2.5 46.8% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 24.7% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kamuzu Barracks1.1

MAFCO0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KAMUZU BARRACKS · PPG 0.80

MAFCO · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kamuzu Barracks (H) 41.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

MAFCO (A) 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kamuzu Barracks face MAFCO in Malawi - Super League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kamuzu Barracks a 41% chance, the draw 29% and MAFCO 30%, so Kamuzu Barracks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kamuzu Barracks and 0.9 for MAFCO (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kamuzu Barracks are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.20 for MAFCO.

Kamuzu Barracks vs MAFCO Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Malawi - Super League Predictions