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Karonga United vs Creck Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 12:30

Karonga United

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Creck

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-18.9%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.1%1-112.5%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-18.8%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.9%3-14.1%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 23.8% — — —

Over 2.5 46.8% — — —

Over 3.5 26.4% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karonga United1.4

Creck0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KARONGA UNITED · PPG 1.00

CRECK · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Karonga United (H) 49.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Creck (A) 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Karonga United face Creck in Malawi - Super League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karonga United a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Creck 24%, so Karonga United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Karonga United and 0.8 for Creck (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karonga United are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Creck.

Karonga United vs Creck Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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