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Maranhão vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:30

Maranhão

PPG 1.57 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Brusque

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.1%0-113.0%0-25.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-113.4%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.0%2-16.9%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.4%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 40.8% 2.45 -1.3%

Draw 32.9% 34.5% 2.90 -4.6%

Away win 26.8% 34.7% 2.88 -13.7%

Over 2.5 36.3% 46.5% 2.15 -22.0%

Over 3.5 20.3% 26.3% 3.80 -13.7%

BTTS 48.4% 55.6% 1.80 -12.9%

Home O1.5 32.1% 40.8% 2.45 -21.3%

Away O1.5 21.3% 36.4% 2.75 -24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.1%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 0–1 13.0%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maranhão1.0

Brusque0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MARANHÃO · PPG 1.57

BRUSQUE · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 1.89 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maranhão (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -1.3%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -4.6%

Brusque (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maranhão face Brusque in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maranhão a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Brusque 27%, so Maranhão are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Maranhão and 0.9 for Brusque (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maranhão are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.86 for Brusque. This match finished 2-1.

Maranhão vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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