Today / Brazil - Serie C / Maringá vs Amazonas

Maringá vs Amazonas Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

Maringá

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Amazonas

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+22.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.9%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.4%1-17.3%1-24.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.8%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-19.2%4+-25.2%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.4% 64.5% 1.55 -4.8%

Draw 19.8% 27.0% 3.70 -16.0%

Away win 18.8% 18.5% 5.40 +0.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 51.8% 1.93 +22.9%

Over 3.5 42.9% 30.8% 3.25 +39.4%

BTTS 54.6% 52.6% 1.90 +3.7%

Home O1.5 63.0% 58.8% 1.70 +7.1%

Away O1.5 35.4% 25.0% 4.00 +41.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 61% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maringá2.5

Amazonas1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MARINGÁ · PPG 1.57

AMAZONAS · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.40 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Maringá (H) 61.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -4.8%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -16.0%

Amazonas (A) 18.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maringá face Amazonas in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maringá a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Amazonas 19%, so Maringá are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Maringá and 1.1 for Amazonas (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maringá are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Amazonas. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +41.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Maringá vs Amazonas Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions