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Helges vs Bollstanäs Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Helges

PPG 0.38 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bollstanäs

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-17.4%0-28.9%0-37.2%0-4+7.7%1 1-03.3%1-17.9%1-29.6%1-37.7%1-4+8.2%2 2-01.8%2-14.2%2-25.1%2-34.1%2-4+4.4%3 3-00.6%3-11.5%3-21.8%3-31.5%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.2% 25.5% 3.92 -17.2%

Draw 21.3% 24.4% 4.10 -7.6%

Away win 60.6% 61.3% 1.63 -1.2%

Over 2.5 65.2% 78.1% 1.28 -16.5%

Over 3.5 43.1% 55.6% 1.80 -22.4%

BTTS 61.8% 74.6% 1.34 -17.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 46.5% 2.15 -31.0%

Away O1.5 65.0% 71.9% 1.39 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob61.8%

A 61% / xG 1.1-2.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 0–2 8.9%

#4 1–3 7.7%

#5 0–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Helges1.1

Bollstanäs2.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HELGES · PPG 0.38

BOLLSTANÄS · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.34 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Helges (H) 18.2%

ODDS 3.92 · IMPLIED 25.5% EV -17.2%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.6%

Bollstanäs (A) 60.6%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Helges face Bollstanäs in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helges a 18% chance, the draw 21% and Bollstanäs 61%, so Bollstanäs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Helges and 2.4 for Bollstanäs (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helges are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 1.29 for Bollstanäs. This match finished 0-5.

Helges vs Bollstanäs Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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