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Kungsängen vs Lidingö Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 16 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 17:00

Kungsängen

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lidingö

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.5%0-25.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.6%1-111.6%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.9%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.4%3-14.5%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 54.1% 1.85 -19.9%

Draw 23.9% 26.3% 3.80 -5.5%

Away win 32.8% 30.3% 3.30 +8.2%

Over 2.5 59.4% 60.6% 1.65 -2.0%

Over 3.5 35.3% 38.5% 2.60 -8.2%

BTTS 59.9% 63.7% 1.57 -6.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 57.8% 1.73 -21.5%

Away O1.5 43.7% 39.2% 2.55 +11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -6.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.9%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kungsängen1.5

Lidingö1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KUNGSÄNGEN · PPG 0.75

LIDINGÖ · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kungsängen (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -19.9%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.5%

Lidingö (A) 32.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kungsängen face Lidingö in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kungsängen a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Lidingö 33%, so Kungsängen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Kungsängen and 1.3 for Lidingö (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kungsängen are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.88 for Lidingö. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.4%.

Kungsängen vs Lidingö Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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