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Sporting CP vs Benfica Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 17:00

Sporting CP

PPG 2.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Benfica

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Home 49% chance

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.2% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-18.2%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-112.2%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.3%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 47.2% 2.12 +10.7%

Draw 26.4% 28.6% 3.50 -7.6%

Away win 21.4% 31.3% 3.20 -31.5%

Over 2.5 41.1% 57.8% 1.73 -28.9%

Over 3.5 20.6% 35.7% 2.80 -42.3%

BTTS 44.1% 63.7% 1.57 -30.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.1%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting CP1.5

Benfica0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CP · PPG 2.62

BENFICA · PPG 2.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.62), Away EXCELLENT (2.43)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting CP (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +10.7%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.6%

Benfica (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting CP face Benfica in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting CP a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Benfica 21%, so Sporting CP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sporting CP and 0.8 for Benfica (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting CP are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 2.43 for Benfica. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Sporting CP vs Benfica Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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