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Sportivo Carapeguá vs Fernando De La Mora Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

Sportivo Carapeguá

PPG 1.62 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fernando De La Mora

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.6%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.3%1-112.2%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-18.6%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.1%3-14.0%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 45.5% 2.20 -11.8%

Draw 25.1% 31.3% 3.20 -11.8%

Away win 34.9% 35.7% 2.80 -2.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 30.5% 3.28 +5.9%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 44.1% 2.27 +3.1%

Away O1.5 41.6% 37.9% 2.64 +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -21.4%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Carapeguá1.4

Fernando De La Mora1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO CARAPEGUÁ · PPG 1.62

FERNANDO DE LA MORA · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Carapeguá (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -11.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.8%

Fernando De La Mora (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Carapeguá face Fernando De La Mora in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Carapeguá a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Fernando De La Mora 35%, so Sportivo Carapeguá are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sportivo Carapeguá and 1.3 for Fernando De La Mora (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Carapeguá are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.62 for Fernando De La Mora. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Sportivo Carapeguá vs Fernando De La Mora Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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