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FC Krasnodar vs Baltika Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:30

FC Krasnodar

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Baltika

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-110.7%0-23.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.2%1-112.5%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.7%2-17.4%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.2%3-12.9%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 64.1% 1.56 -25.7%

Draw 30.8% 23.8% 4.20 +29.4%

Away win 21.6% 15.5% 6.45 +39.3%

Over 2.5 28.6% 47.4% 2.11 -39.6%

Over 3.5 11.9% 27.4% 3.65 -56.6%

BTTS 34.4% 47.4% 2.11 -27.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob34.4%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 0–0 15.5%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Krasnodar1.2

Baltika0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.6% · O3.5 PROB 11.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KRASNODAR · PPG 2.50

BALTIKA · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=47.6%

Win probability 1X2

FC Krasnodar (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -25.7%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +29.4%

Baltika (A) 21.6%

ODDS 6.45 · IMPLIED 15.5% EV +39.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Krasnodar face Baltika in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Krasnodar a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Baltika 22%, so FC Krasnodar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FC Krasnodar and 0.7 for Baltika (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Krasnodar are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Baltika. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.3%. This match finished 2-2.

FC Krasnodar vs Baltika Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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