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Dalstorps vs Kongahälla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:00

Dalstorps

PPG 2.12 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kongahälla

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.3%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.6%1-17.9%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.5%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-17.5%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-18.0%4+-23.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 65.4% 1.53 -2.8%

Draw 20.4% 24.4% 4.10 -9.8%

Away win 16.1% 20.0% 5.00 -11.7%

Over 2.5 63.4% 69.0% 1.45 -8.1%

Over 3.5 39.5% 47.6% 2.10 -17.1%

BTTS 54.6% 67.6% 1.48 -19.2%

Home O1.5 62.4% 70.4% 1.42 -11.4%

Away O1.5 20.4% 36.4% 2.75 -26.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 64% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–0 9.2%

#4 1–1 7.9%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalstorps2.4

Kongahälla0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DALSTORPS · PPG 2.12

KONGAHÄLLA · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.57 for Home, form 2.12 vs 0.86 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Dalstorps (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -2.8%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.8%

Kongahälla (A) 16.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalstorps face Kongahälla in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalstorps a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Kongahälla 16%, so Dalstorps are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Dalstorps and 0.8 for Kongahälla (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalstorps are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.86 for Kongahälla. This match finished 4-1.

Dalstorps vs Kongahälla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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