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Figueirense vs Ferroviária Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 20:00

Figueirense

PPG 1.14 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Ferroviária

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-115.3%0-27.6%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.6%1-113.4%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.0%2-15.9%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.7%3-11.7%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% 46.5% 2.15 -29.0%

Draw 32.8% 33.3% 3.00 -1.6%

Away win 34.1% 30.8% 3.25 +10.8%

Over 2.5 36.3% 42.6% 2.35 -14.7%

Over 3.5 18.9% 23.1% 4.33 -10.9%

BTTS 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 40.8% 2.45 -21.3%

Away O1.5 29.5% 30.3% 3.30 -1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.4%

D 33% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.6%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.3%

#4 1–0 13.6%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Figueirense0.9

Ferroviária1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 1.14

FERROVIÁRIA · PPG 1.29

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.11, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Figueirense (H) 33.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -29.0%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.6%

Ferroviária (A) 34.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Figueirense face Ferroviária in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Figueirense a 33% chance, the draw 33% and Ferroviária 34%, so Ferroviária are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Figueirense and 1.0 for Ferroviária (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Figueirense are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.29 for Ferroviária. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Figueirense vs Ferroviária Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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