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Cowdenbeath vs Broxburn Athletic Prediction— Scotland - Football League - Lowland League

Regular Season ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Cowdenbeath

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Broxburn Athletic

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-112.1%0-29.4%0-34.9%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.8%1-112.1%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.9%2-16.0%2-24.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.3%3-12.0%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Draw 25.8% 30.3% 3.30 -8.9%

Away win 46.4% 48.8% 2.05 -4.9%

Over 2.5 51.7% 65.4% 1.53 -20.9%

Over 3.5 29.7% 44.8% 2.23 -20.3%

BTTS 53.1% 69.4% 1.44 -23.5%

Home O1.5 32.1% 46.5% 2.15 -31.0%

Away O1.5 48.2% 57.8% 1.73 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob53.1%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 0–2✓ 9.4%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cowdenbeath1.0

Broxburn Athletic1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COWDENBEATH · PPG 1.17

BROXBURN ATHLETIC · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.56 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Cowdenbeath (H) 27.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.9%

Broxburn Athletic (A) 46.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cowdenbeath face Broxburn Athletic in Scotland - Football League - Lowland League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cowdenbeath a 28% chance, the draw 26% and Broxburn Athletic 46%, so Broxburn Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Cowdenbeath and 1.6 for Broxburn Athletic (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cowdenbeath are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.80 for Broxburn Athletic. This match finished 0-2.

Cowdenbeath vs Broxburn Athletic Prediction— Scotland - Football League - Lowland League

Match Preview & Prediction

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