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Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs East Stirlingshire Prediction— Scotland - Football League - Lowland League

Regular Season ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

PPG 1.49 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

East Stirlingshire

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.1%0-21.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.3%1-15.9%1-24.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.3%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.7%3-17.8%3-25.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-110.8%4+-27.4%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 22.3% — — —

Over 2.5 65.2% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 61.8% — — —

Home O1.5 66.5% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.8%

H 56% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 2–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic2.8

East Stirlingshire1.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BONNYRIGG ROSE ATHLETIC · PPG 1.49

EAST STIRLINGSHIRE · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (H) 55.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

East Stirlingshire (A) 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic face East Stirlingshire in Scotland - Football League - Lowland League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic a 56% chance, the draw 22% and East Stirlingshire 22%, so Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic and 1.4 for East Stirlingshire (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.40 for East Stirlingshire. This match finished 4-1.

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs East Stirlingshire Prediction— Scotland - Football League - Lowland League

Match Preview & Prediction

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