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Skövde AIK vs Lund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Skövde AIK

PPG 1.43 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lund

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-114.6%0-210.2%0-34.7%0-4+2.2%1 1-09.0%1-112.6%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-03.9%2-15.4%2-23.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.1%3-11.6%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.7% 23.8% 4.20 +4.8%

Draw 28.2% 25.0% 4.00 +7.7%

Away win 46.1% 61.0% 1.64 -24.4%

Over 2.5 50.3% 64.5% 1.55 -22.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 41.7% 2.40 -18.5%

BTTS 50.2% 64.5% 1.55 -22.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 36.4% 2.75 -11.7%

Away O1.5 43.7% 64.5% 1.55 -32.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.2%

A 46% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 0–1 14.6%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 0–2 10.2%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skövde AIK0.9

Lund1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SKÖVDE AIK · PPG 1.43

LUND · PPG 1.33

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.53 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Skövde AIK (H) 25.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +4.8%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +7.7%

Lund (A) 46.1%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skövde AIK face Lund in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skövde AIK a 26% chance, the draw 28% and Lund 46%, so Lund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Skövde AIK and 1.4 for Lund (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skövde AIK are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.33 for Lund. This match finished 1-1.

Skövde AIK vs Lund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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