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Encarnación vs Paraguari AC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Encarnación

PPG 0.62 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Paraguari AC

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-110.3%0-25.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.0%1-113.1%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.3%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.2%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% — — —

Draw 26.9% — — —

Away win 28.5% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 36.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -21.4%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–1✓ 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Encarnación1.3

Paraguari AC1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ENCARNACIÓN · PPG 0.62

PARAGUARI AC · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Encarnación (H) 44.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paraguari AC (A) 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Encarnación face Paraguari AC in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Encarnación a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Paraguari AC 28%, so Encarnación are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Encarnación and 1.1 for Paraguari AC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Encarnación are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 0.38 for Paraguari AC. This match finished 0-1.

Encarnación vs Paraguari AC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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