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Pogon Grodzisk vs Pogon Siedlce Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:00

Pogon Grodzisk

PPG 1.93 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Pogon Siedlce

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-17.4%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-111.9%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.1%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 51.3% 1.95 +1.4%

Draw 24.9% 30.8% 3.25 -19.1%

Away win 23.1% 29.4% 3.40 -21.5%

Over 2.5 47.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.2% — — —

BTTS 50.0% 60.6% 1.65 -17.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.0%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.1%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogon Grodzisk1.6

Pogon Siedlce1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

POGON GRODZISK · PPG 1.93

POGON SIEDLCE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=52.0%

Win probability 1X2

Pogon Grodzisk (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +1.4%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -19.1%

Pogon Siedlce (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogon Grodzisk face Pogon Siedlce in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogon Grodzisk a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Pogon Siedlce 23%, so Pogon Grodzisk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Pogon Grodzisk and 1.0 for Pogon Siedlce (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogon Grodzisk are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.00 for Pogon Siedlce. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Pogon Grodzisk vs Pogon Siedlce Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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