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Täby vs Korsnäs Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Täby

PPG 2.12 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Korsnäs

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.1%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.9%1-17.4%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-19.0%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.6%3-17.2%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-17.7%4+-22.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.7% 76.3% 1.31 -12.6%

Draw 17.9% 20.2% 4.95 -6.8%

Away win 15.4% 14.8% 6.75 +2.4%

Over 2.5 62.5% 76.9% 1.30 -18.8%

Over 3.5 38.6% 54.3% 1.84 -29.0%

BTTS 52.9% 67.1% 1.49 -21.2%

Home O1.5 62.4% 78.1% 1.28 -20.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 32.9% 3.04 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.9%

H 67% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 3–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 1–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Täby2.4

Korsnäs0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TÄBY · PPG 2.12

KORSNÄS · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.74 for Home, form 2.12 vs 0.86 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Täby (H) 66.7%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -12.6%

Draw 17.9%

ODDS 4.95 · IMPLIED 20.2% EV -6.8%

Korsnäs (A) 15.4%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Täby face Korsnäs in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Täby a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Korsnäs 15%, so Täby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Täby and 0.7 for Korsnäs (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Täby are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.86 for Korsnäs. This match finished 5-1.

Täby vs Korsnäs Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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