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Onsala vs Böljan Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Onsala

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Böljan

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.7%0-25.9%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.9%1-112.1%1-28.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-18.4%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.9%3-13.9%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 58.8% 1.70 -33.0%

Draw 26.3% 24.4% 4.10 +4.7%

Away win 34.3% 26.3% 3.80 +30.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 72.5% 1.38 -26.2%

Over 3.5 32.3% 51.3% 1.95 -37.0%

BTTS 54.6% 72.5% 1.38 -24.6%

Home O1.5 42.1% 69.0% 1.45 -39.0%

Away O1.5 43.7% 44.4% 2.25 -1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Onsala1.4

Böljan1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ONSALA · PPG 1.00

BÖLJAN · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Onsala (H) 39.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -33.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +4.7%

Böljan (A) 34.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Onsala face Böljan in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Onsala a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Böljan 34%, so Onsala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Onsala and 1.4 for Böljan (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Onsala are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Böljan. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Onsala vs Böljan Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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