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Eskilsminne vs Rosengård Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Eskilsminne

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Rosengård

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.4%0-25.0%0-33.0%0-4+2.1%1 1-04.9%1-19.1%1-28.4%1-35.1%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.7%2-27.1%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.4%3-14.3%3-24.0%3-32.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.7%4+-22.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 35.1% 2.85 +13.2%

Draw 22.4% 27.4% 3.65 -10.9%

Away win 37.9% 47.6% 2.10 -20.4%

Over 2.5 66.5% 64.5% 1.55 +3.1%

Over 3.5 44.0% 42.0% 2.38 +4.7%

BTTS 64.3% 69.0% 1.45 -6.8%

Home O1.5 49.2% 46.5% 2.15 +5.8%

Away O1.5 54.1% 55.6% 1.80 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.3%

A 38% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eskilsminne1.7

Rosengård1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ESKILSMINNE · PPG 1.75

ROSENGÅRD · PPG 1.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Eskilsminne (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +13.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.9%

Rosengård (A) 37.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eskilsminne face Rosengård in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eskilsminne a 40% chance, the draw 22% and Rosengård 38%, so Eskilsminne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Eskilsminne and 1.8 for Rosengård (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eskilsminne are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.88 for Rosengård. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Eskilsminne vs Rosengård Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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