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Arouca vs Estrela Amadora Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:30

Arouca

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Estrela Amadora

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+27.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.4%0-23.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.8%1-18.9%1-26.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.8%2-19.0%2-26.9%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.9%3-16.0%3-24.6%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.8%4+-23.7%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 48.1% 2.08 +1.9%

Draw 21.5% 29.9% 3.35 -28.0%

Away win 29.5% 29.4% 3.40 +0.3%

Over 2.5 68.9% 54.1% 1.85 +27.5%

Over 3.5 47.5% 31.3% 3.20 +52.0%

BTTS 68.0% 58.8% 1.70 +15.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob68.0%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arouca2.0

Estrela Amadora1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AROUCA · PPG 1.29

ESTRELA AMADORA · PPG 0.79

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Arouca (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +1.9%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -28.0%

Estrela Amadora (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arouca face Estrela Amadora in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arouca a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Estrela Amadora 30%, so Arouca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Arouca and 1.5 for Estrela Amadora (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arouca are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.79 for Estrela Amadora. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +52.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Arouca vs Estrela Amadora Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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