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Portugal - Primeira Liga Sunday, April 19, 2026 14:30 
Arouca PPG 1.29 
Estrela Amadora PPG 0.79
Portugal - Primeira Liga Sunday, April 19, 2026 14:30 Arouca PPG 1.291-0 MISS
Estrela Amadora PPG 0.79Over3.5· +52.0% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 68.9% Odds: 1.85 +27.5%
Over 3.5 47.5% Odds: 3.20 +52.0%
BTTS 68.0% Odds: 1.70 +15.6%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 2-1 ✘
2nd 1-1 ✘
3rd 2-2 ✘
4th 1-2 ✘
5th 3-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Arouca 2.02
Estrela Amadora 1.53
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 +27.5% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+52.0%)
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+52.0%)
Verdict & Form
✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
MODERATE_HOME 75%
Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.79)