Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Russia - Premier League Regular Season - 25 Lukoil Arena· Moscow Sunday, April 19, 2026 14:00

Spartak Moscow PPG 2.25

3-1 HIT CS5

Akhmat Grozny PPG 0.75

Over3.5· +15.5% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Moscow face Akhmat Grozny in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Moscow a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Akhmat Grozny 17%, so Spartak Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Spartak Moscow and 1.0 for Akhmat Grozny (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Moscow are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.75 for Akhmat Grozny. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 64.0%

Odds: 1.53 EV: -2.1%

Draw 19.5%

Odds: 4.40 EV: -14.2%

Away 16.6%

Odds: 6.55 EV: +8.7%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 62.6% Odds: 1.80 +12.7%

Over 3.5 40.4% Odds: 2.86 +15.5%

BTTS 57.2% Odds: 1.85 +5.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Spartak Moscow

2.20

Akhmat Grozny

1.03

Model SuggestionHome -2.1% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-2.1%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5/Under 54%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -39.8%

Bet Hit 32% (19 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=64.0%