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Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

Spartak Moscow

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Akhmat Grozny

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.1%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.7%1-19.0%1-24.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.0%3-17.2%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-16.7%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 65.4% 1.53 -2.1%

Draw 19.5% 22.7% 4.40 -14.2%

Away win 16.6% 15.3% 6.55 +8.7%

Over 2.5 62.6% 55.6% 1.80 +12.7%

Over 3.5 40.4% 35.0% 2.86 +15.5%

BTTS 57.2% 54.1% 1.85 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.2%

H 64% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 9.6%

#3 1–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Moscow2.2

Akhmat Grozny1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK MOSCOW · PPG 2.25

AKHMAT GROZNY · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=64.0%

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Moscow (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -2.1%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -14.2%

Akhmat Grozny (A) 16.6%

ODDS 6.55 · IMPLIED 15.3% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Moscow face Akhmat Grozny in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Moscow a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Akhmat Grozny 17%, so Spartak Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Spartak Moscow and 1.0 for Akhmat Grozny (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Moscow are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.75 for Akhmat Grozny. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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