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W. Innsbruck vs Lustenau Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

West - 25 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

W. Innsbruck

PPG 2.20 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Lustenau

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.91) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-10.7%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.8%1-12.7%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.1%2-15.1%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.6%3-16.5%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-030.3%4+-117.0%4+-24.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 92.0% — — —

Draw 5.8% — — —

Away win 2.2% — — —

Over 2.5 81.2% — — —

Over 3.5 63.7% — — —

BTTS 41.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.9%

H 92% / xG 3.8-0.6 / O2.5 81% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.6%

#2 4–0 11.1%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 5–0✓ 8.5%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

W. Innsbruck3.8

Lustenau0.6

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.2% · O3.5 PROB 63.7%

Form & verdict PPG

W. INNSBRUCK · PPG 2.20

LUSTENAU · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.91) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

W. Innsbruck (H) 92.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 5.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lustenau (A) 2.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

W. Innsbruck face Lustenau in Austria - Regionalliga - West on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives W. Innsbruck a 92% chance, the draw 6% and Lustenau 2%, so W. Innsbruck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for W. Innsbruck and 0.6 for Lustenau (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, W. Innsbruck are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.91 for Lustenau. This match finished 5-0.

W. Innsbruck vs Lustenau Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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