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Skalica vs Trencin Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Relegation Group · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:30

Skalica

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Trencin

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-112.6%0-26.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.2%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.6%2-17.2%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.7%3-12.6%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 47.2% 2.12 -19.7%

Draw 30.6% 29.0% 3.45 +5.6%

Away win 31.5% 32.8% 3.05 -3.9%

Over 2.5 32.9% 52.4% 1.91 -37.2%

Over 3.5 14.7% 29.9% 3.35 -50.7%

BTTS 40.3% 57.8% 1.73 -30.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 16.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob40.3%

D 31% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.2%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 13.3%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skalica1.1

Trencin0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SKALICA · PPG 1.38

TRENCIN · PPG 1.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

40%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.46)

Win probability 1X2

Skalica (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -19.7%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +5.6%

Trencin (A) 31.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skalica face Trencin in Slovakia - Super Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skalica a 38% chance, the draw 31% and Trencin 32%, so Skalica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Skalica and 0.9 for Trencin (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skalica are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.46 for Trencin. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 4-1.

Skalica vs Trencin Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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